So, just wondering if we have any blasts of cold air will be entering the area over the next month.  I know weather is exactly predictable but I know usually we can get a good idea of what time be coming.  I'm not even going to mention that four letter word in hopes we'll actually get some soon.

Joe

Well - according to the 18Z GFS (towards the end of its run), it has some much colder temps. with some snow possibilities.  This is around the 18th of the month - highs in the low 30's, falling off to the upper 20's to near 30 for highs on the 19th.  BUT, this is long-range, which means there is a lot of room for change and it is the 18Z run (as opposed to the actual data runs of the 12 and 0Z runs).  In other words, the 06Z and 18Z runs are not as reliable to begin with!

We'll keep watching for the trends with the future runs to come.

Mike

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I have been seeing the same thing around the 17th and 18th too.

Nice to see The Stormboard may begin to get active just in time for the winter season..  Right now, I wouldn't read much into the long range models.  With the pattern we've been stuck in for about a year now, the models have had a very difficult time depicting certain events and locking in on it.

James

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James
Wx Producer WKRC
www.twitter.com/cincywxpro

I know what you mean, but hasn't the current pattern been very wet the past year?  Just seems like there is a ton of moisture.

Joe

Most months have been above normal in rainfall.  A few though have been below normal.  Currently we are 2.86" above normal for the year in rainfall.  Think back to June 25 where 2.65" of rain fell that day from one or two lone t'storms.  There is your surplus right there.

James

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James
Wx Producer WKRC
www.twitter.com/cincywxpro

Well, the 18th is getting closer and although it's going to cool down, it's not going to get *real* cold is it?

Donna

I have been seeing around thanksgiving week highs in the upper 30's

I've heard grumbles of possibly seeing a few flakes of snow on Thanksgiving...looking into next week, looks like a pretty decent cooldown...anyone see/heard anything?

Joe

I have too

So, just at about a week out, it looks like the moisture will be here, and possibly the cold temps.  Are we looking at possible snow showers for Thanksgiving and the weekend?

I heard John Gumm mention this morning the possibility of a few snow flakes on Thanksgiving day.

Donna

Yea, I heard that too Donna...nothing big or exciting...but hey, its snow!

Well it goes to show you that the long range models are trends to watch, not face value obviously.  Although the 18th came and went, we cooled down, but not to the degree they were indicating prior.  It does look like it will cool down around Thanksgiving with a possibility of some flurries - Friday too.  So if you have been following the models, take a look way, way out to early December... several runs of the models have been showing a cool down with some snow.  Latest 18Z GFS is "trending" towards some snow around Dec. 6.  (Don't hold me to it... I know better).  I think what we can see is that we're starting to see hints towards a cool down with some better chances of snow.  But we are in December after all. 

Starting to be that time of year in which we are talking snow - hopefully this board becomes active again.

Mike

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