Well, at the present, it looks as though we may have some rain / storms on the 4th - even at night as a front stalls out near the Ohio River and impulses travel up the front.  We can hope for a break /or late start on the rain, but it looks wet right now.  More model runs to look at, but with 4 days left and model runs consistently hinting at rain, it is not a good sign if you want dry weather.  Lets see what happens in the next few days runs.

Station: KHAO    Lat: 39.37  Lon: -84.52  Elev: 188  Closest grid pt: 30.9 km.
Initialization Time: 08-06-30 1800 UTC
PARAMETER/TIME      000    012    024    036    048    060    072    084    096    108    120
------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
  DAY / HOUR        30/18  01/06  01/18  02/06  02/18  03/06  03/18  04/06  04/18  05/06  05/18
------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TEMPS
  SFC (2 M) (F)         66     58     77     61     81     73     81     67     67     55     63
  850 MB (C)             8     11     11     13     15     18     16     15     14     13     12
  700 MB (C)             1      0      3      3      6      6      6      6      5      6      6
  500 MB (C)           -16    -16    -13    -11    -11    -10     -9     -9     -9    -10    -12
  1000-500 THCK        558    558    562    565    570    572    572    570    569    567    566

MOISTURE
  SFC (2M) DP (F)       54     54     48     51     58     59     68     67     65     54     58
  850 MB DP/RH        6/92   4/61   1/48   8/71   8/63  11/62  14/88  13/87  12/88  12/93  11/94
  700 MB DP/RH       -3/73 -14/33 -37/03 -21/15  -8/35   3/81   2/74   5/92   3/83   5/93   1/74
  500 MB DP/RH      -19/77 -38/14 -34/16 -20/47 -25/30 -21/40 -14/66 -16/56 -10/94 -14/69 -29/22
  CONV PRECIP (IN)
  TOTAL PRECIP (IN)          0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.01   0.02   0.14   0.21   0.72   0.02

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The overall chances of rain look very high for the 4th.  However, it's all about the timing.  That's impossible to determine.  I'm hoping for generally dry conditions Friday night.  Or, that the front stalls more to the south.

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John M. Gumm
Meteorologist
WKRC-TV - Local 12
jgumm@wkrc.com

I'm placing my order for no rain Friday night!  We do lots of fireworks at my house on the 4th. I'm watching the forecast carefully the rest of this week.

John, I saw in another post that you've been to Brookville, IN and Connersville.  If you can find those 2 places, you can easily find my house and come help us light up the sky! From Cincy or N. Kentucky area it's only about 20-30 minute drive.

Donna

Hey John, just wanted to let you know that the Brookville, IN bicentennial celebration and parade went very well.  There was a brief inturruption of the parade by a heavy rain storm (no lightning, just wind and rain). After about 15 monutes, the parade resumed and the skies turned blue. We could tell from the dark clouds to the southeast of Brookville that the folks in Hamilton Co where getting slammed.  The parade was an awesome sight and was over 2 hours long!!!

Hey John I was just wandering if there was a chance the weather might change please respond!

 

THANKS AND HAVE A GREAT 4TH OF JULY

Yes, things could still change.  This afternoon's computer model runs are showing a weaker disturbance moving along the front on the 4th.  So the rainfall isn't as heavy and is displaced a little more to the south over NKY.  The chances of rain still look high for the 4th...but the chances for an "all day" rain look low.  Models still show the rain clearing out in time for fireworks.  Let's hope that holds up.  But planning for a cookout FRI afternoon should include plans on what to do if there are a few passing storms.  I know I'm thinking about it with mine.

Donna - thanks for the invite!  Like I mentioned before, I married a Hoosier, so it seems like I'm always in Indiana!  I have a lot of my wife's family coming in for the 4th from there..  Let's hope the weather just includes a couple passing storms...or better yet, none at all.

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John M. Gumm
Meteorologist
WKRC-TV - Local 12
jgumm@wkrc.com

wishin4spring:

Hey John, just wanted to let you know that the Brookville, IN bicentennial celebration and parade went very well.  There was a brief inturruption of the parade by a heavy rain storm (no lightning, just wind and rain). After about 15 monutes, the parade resumed and the skies turned blue. We could tell from the dark clouds to the southeast of Brookville that the folks in Hamilton Co where getting slammed.  The parade was an awesome sight and was over 2 hours long!!!

Glad to hear it went well!  I was thinking about you guys!

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John M. Gumm
Meteorologist
WKRC-TV - Local 12
jgumm@wkrc.com

What about south of the river? I've got alot of money invested in fireworks to get wet. 

Looks like the models are in somewhat of an agreement with a more scattered nature of showers near 10pm on Friday.  The further south of the river, the higher the chances of rain; but the immediate northern KY area looks to have only a scattered chance of rain for the night of the 4th.  Hope this trend in the models continues.

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