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Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

Bearcat04 — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 03:48:02 GMT

Are we still in a moderate risk or do we have any insight as to what we might see tomorrow? Just wondering.

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

cincywxpro_12 — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 02:09:44 GMT

Just stay tuned tomorrow for the latest. Today was pretty much a bust with the severe weather across the country, though there have been widespread wind reports. Things will definitely change from tonight through tomorrow with the svr wx threat.

If time prevails tomorrow evening I will try to post on here and on twitter.

James

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

Bearcat04 — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 23:19:29 GMT

I don't think anyone is worried yet, but everyone just needs to be ready.

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

nwswannabe — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 21:55:47 GMT

Please don't panic though! Nothing is set in stone ever in the world of meteorology! So just keep an eye to the sky and an ear to tv or radio!

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

nwswannabe — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 21:54:18 GMT

wxenthus:

You know, the rate at which the models have been going, it's not a sure thing as to when storms might arrive. If you take them at face value (which is not plausible), tomorrow evening looks to be the most significant threat (12Z runs). But..... there is certainly a chance that we might see a repeat of this morning with a threat of storms in the morning into afternoon.

The storms are staying together much more vigorously south of the warm front which is now close to the Ohio river. It will likely cross our area by tomorrow allowing us to be in the soupy air, thus supporting more of the storm activity for us.

Lets see how the next model runs take our warm front and the timing. The more time we have to heat up tomorrow (AM), the more likely we'll have the more stronger storms. Will definitely need to watch.

I totally agree.

It is one of those things where you really don't knwo what is coming until it gets here. But certainly a CONSIDERABLE chance for a MAJOR severe weather outbreak.

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

Bearcat04 — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 21:35:54 GMT

Seems like tomorrow could be one of the most active days we've had in sometime.

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

wxenthus — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 19:13:04 GMT

You know, the rate at which the models have been going, it's not a sure thing as to when storms might arrive. If you take them at face value (which is not plausible), tomorrow evening looks to be the most significant threat (12Z runs). But..... there is certainly a chance that we might see a repeat of this morning with a threat of storms in the morning into afternoon.

The storms are staying together much more vigorously south of the warm front which is now close to the Ohio river. It will likely cross our area by tomorrow allowing us to be in the soupy air, thus supporting more of the storm activity for us.

Lets see how the next model runs take our warm front and the timing. The more time we have to heat up tomorrow (AM), the more likely we'll have the more stronger storms. Will definitely need to watch.

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

wishin4spring — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:52:06 GMT

Anybody have any idea when the weather will get bad? I have to work until 2:30 and my kids will be at home. I may have to take them over to my in-laws just in case. We also have a wedding tomorrow evening. Guess the bride and groom will be dodging raindrops!!

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

Bearcat04 — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 14:24:05 GMT

Looks to be a very interesting day tomorrow, hmmm...let's hope everyone stays smart and uses common sense. Remember, the sirens don't always work, if you think it's getting bad, take shelter. And as nwswannabe said, stay safe and keep an eye to the sky!

Joe

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

nwswannabe — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:44:54 GMT

The last time i heard a forecast like that from the NWS was April 7th 2006. (This was the only time that the SPC issued a High Risk area on the day two outlook). The cincinnati area was not in the high risk but in a MDT risk that day and we got some wind damage from guess what....a derecho.

Thought it was an interesting similarity.

Like the other outbreak. SPC is forecasting individual supercells to develop through late afternoon and then a MCS to move through late night here.

They are really expecting a widespread out break.

Stay Safe and keep an Eye to the Sky!

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

wxenthus — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:20:54 GMT

Wow - this is an unusual Area Forecast Discussion from Wilmington:

ARRIVAL OF STRONG MID LVL S/WV PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VLY FRI EVNG WILL MAKE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SVR CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT...AND MAY LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX
EVENT ACRS FCST AREA. RAPID TSTM DVLPMNT IS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF S/WV TRACKING THRU CNTRL PLAINS LIKELY...EXPANDING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO INTO THE EVNG
HOURS AS AN INTENSIFYING MCS. STRENGTHENING MID/UPR LVL FLO WILL
PROMOTE A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD DMG WIND
THREAT...POSSIBLY AS A DERECHO...AS TSTM COMPLEX MOVES INTO FCST
FRI EVNG. HAVE RAISED TO LKLY POPS WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF MCS
FRI NIGHT. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SUGGEST TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
IS LIKELY AND POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS INVOF BNDRY FRI AFTN/EVNG
FOLLOWED BY LARGE TSTM COMPLEX MAY LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND GROWING CONCERNS
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. LRG HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MCS FRI NIGHT.

Probably should monitor this for tomorrow....

Mike

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

nwswannabe — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:12:39 GMT

MDT Risk for Friday. Upper End Slight risk today. Today may be active later this afternoon.

We are featured in the "hatched area" Friday. This means that they expect some significant severe reports.

Significant severe is classified as one, two, or all of these things: EF-2 or higher tornadoes. T'Storm Winds over 75 MPH. Hail greater than 2 inches in diameter.

Friday is shaping up to be an active and wicked day of severe weather.

Stay safe out there!

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

nwswannabe — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 03:21:21 GMT

building ridge from monday through middle of next week!

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

Bearcat04 — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:36:20 GMT

Great...more rain...so do any models suggest an end to this miserable weather pattern we're in or this going to be an all summer thing?

Joe

Re: Friday Severe Weather Chances...

nwswannabe — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:42:21 GMT

The reason it is nice here is because we missed the trigger for the storms to develop. It was an old outflow boundary coming through but it came through to early in the day.

Thursday is now looking quite active as well. Possible MDT risk for tomorrow as well.

Nothing is in a MDT risk yet, but if the timing is right we MAY wind up in one.

Because they are supposed to be nocturnal events they may not be a MDT risk but it will be active even after dark.